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Scorecard

Research · Scorecard · Coverage & data quality · Names

Every published interpretation names a claim about a later issue and carries the base rate for that claim, computed at the time it was logged from the same tables. When the later data arrive the claim resolves hit, miss or void, and the score is lift over the base rate — the hit rate minus the mean base rate of the claims made, in percentage points, with a 95% interval that resamples issue dates (claims logged the same day share the market day). Hit rate alone is not reported as a score. Brier skill compares the stated confidence (default 0.75) with the base rate as a forecast of the same outcomes; above zero means the view added information. Trading days are weekdays. Fewer than 5 issue dates gives no interval.

Overall

All models	Logged	Scoreable	Scored	Void	Pending	Withheld	Mean base rate	Lift over base rate (95% interval)	Brier skill	Dates
all	12	9	0	0	9	0	—	no scored claims yet	—	0

By model

Model	Logged	Scoreable	Pending	Mean base rate	Lift over base rate (95% interval)	Brier skill
anthropic/claude-fable-5.1	4	3	3	—	no scored claims yet	—
anthropic/claude-opus-5	4	3	3	—	no scored claims yet	—
google/gemini-3.8-flash	4	3	3	—	no scored claims yet	—

By publication and model

Publication · model	Logged	Scoreable	Pending	Mean base rate	Lift over base rate (95% interval)	Brier skill
Editorial Attention · anthropic/claude-fable-5.1	1	0	0	—	no scored claims yet	—
Editorial Attention · anthropic/claude-opus-5	1	0	0	—	no scored claims yet	—
Editorial Attention · google/gemini-3.8-flash	1	0	0	—	no scored claims yet	—
Fed Language Tracker · anthropic/claude-fable-5.1	1	1	1	—	no scored claims yet	—
Fed Language Tracker · anthropic/claude-opus-5	1	1	1	—	no scored claims yet	—
Fed Language Tracker · google/gemini-3.8-flash	1	1	1	—	no scored claims yet	—
Regime Watch · anthropic/claude-fable-5.1	1	1	1	—	no scored claims yet	—
Regime Watch · anthropic/claude-opus-5	1	1	1	—	no scored claims yet	—
Regime Watch · google/gemini-3.8-flash	1	1	1	—	no scored claims yet	—
Sector Attention Breadth · anthropic/claude-fable-5.1	1	1	1	—	no scored claims yet	—
Sector Attention Breadth · anthropic/claude-opus-5	1	1	1	—	no scored claims yet	—
Sector Attention Breadth · google/gemini-3.8-flash	1	1	1	—	no scored claims yet	—

Claims

Date	Publication	Model	Claim	Base rate at log time	Outcome
2026-09-02	Sector Attention Breadth	google/gemini-3.8-flash	Communication Services will record a Top-5 share of gains of at least 31.9% in the next issue. claim 0f857f72 · confidence 0.8	Population: share of a sector's names whose attention value rose versus the previous session (levels, day over day; flat names excluded from the denominator), sampled weekly as the last session on or before each 7-day step back from the as-of date; rank 1 = the highest share that week, rel = the share minus the median sector's share that week; sectors with at least 20 names, crypto, unclassified excluded (the published row rule). Sector is each name's current label applied to its whole history; 3 years to 2026-08-31. Given that the claim holds now, it held in the following issue too few to rate (n=0) of the time (n=0 transitions); unconditionally too few to rate (n=0) of 0. Subject's own record: 0 of 0 periods at or above 31.9. Window 2023-09-01 to 2026-08-31. No base rate (n=0); this claim is logged but cannot be scored as lift.	pendinguntil 2026-09-09
2026-09-02	Sector Attention Breadth	anthropic/claude-opus-5	We expect at most two sectors to print a Top-5 share of gains above 30% in the next issue. claim b7370a9b · confidence 0.6	Population: rows of table 'breadth' in each earlier issue of 'sector_breadth_weekly' (published issues first, point-in-time snapshots fill gaps), up to 2026-08-31. Given that the claim holds now, it held in the following issue too few to rate (n=0) of the time (n=0 transitions); unconditionally too few to rate (n=0) of 0. Window no history. No base rate (n=0); this claim is logged but cannot be scored as lift.	pendinguntil 2026-09-09
2026-09-02	Sector Attention Breadth	anthropic/claude-fable-5.1	Communication Services' top-5 share of gains falls below 50% in the next issue. claim 407724fb · confidence 0.65	Population: share of a sector's names whose attention value rose versus the previous session (levels, day over day; flat names excluded from the denominator), sampled weekly as the last session on or before each 7-day step back from the as-of date; rank 1 = the highest share that week, rel = the share minus the median sector's share that week; sectors with at least 20 names, crypto, unclassified excluded (the published row rule). Sector is each name's current label applied to its whole history; 3 years to 2026-08-31. Given that the claim does not hold now, it held in the following issue too few to rate (n=0) of the time (n=0 transitions); unconditionally too few to rate (n=0) of 0. Subject's own record: 0 of 0 periods below 50. Window 2023-09-01 to 2026-08-31. No base rate (n=0); this claim is logged but cannot be scored as lift.	pendinguntil 2026-09-09
2026-09-02	Regime Watch	google/gemini-3.8-flash	GOOG will remain in attention state 3 through the next two weeks. claim d617fe63 · confidence 0.6	57% (n=249) · c1/h3	pendinguntil 2026-09-16
2026-09-02	Regime Watch	anthropic/claude-opus-5	We expect both AMZN and GOOG to still carry state 3 a week from now. claim a05bf50b · confidence 0.62	53% (n=249) · c1/h3	pendinguntil 2026-09-09
2026-09-02	Regime Watch	anthropic/claude-fable-5.1	AMZN remains in state 3 through the next two weeks. claim 310ffb94 · confidence 0.6	57% (n=249) · c1/h3	pendinguntil 2026-09-16
2026-09-01	Fed Language Tracker	google/gemini-3.8-flash	In his next press conference, Warsh will record a rate of mentions for 'balance sheet' of at least 11.5 per 100k characters. claim 362de0e8 · confidence 0.6	16% (n=322) · c1/h1	pendinguntil 2026-10-31
2026-09-01	Fed Language Tracker	anthropic/claude-opus-5	At the next press conference Warsh's 'inflation expectations' rate stays below 6.0 per 100k characters of his own words. claim cb334122 · confidence 0.79	76% (n=246) · c1/h1	pendinguntil 2026-10-31
2026-09-01	Fed Language Tracker	anthropic/claude-fable-5.1	At the next press conference, Warsh's 'balance sheet' rate stays at or above 5.0 per 100k characters. claim a68d5768 · confidence 0.7	80% (n=303) · c1/h1	pendinguntil 2026-10-31

Views without a scoreable claim

These interpretations were published but carry no scoreable claim — most often because every claim the writer could make resolves the same way nearly all the time, so no lift could be measured. They count in the logged column, never in lift.

Date	Publication	Model	Why
2026-09-01	Editorial Attention	google/gemini-3.8-flash	no claim menu
2026-09-01	Editorial Attention	anthropic/claude-opus-5	no claim menu
2026-09-01	Editorial Attention	anthropic/claude-fable-5.1	no claim menu

Withheld interpretations

None.

Earlier interpretations

13 interpretation(s) were logged before every view carried a matched control. They are listed here unscored and enter no aggregate.

Date	Publication	Claim as written
2026-09-01	Editorial Attention
2026-09-01	Fed Language Tracker
2026-09-01	Regime Watch
2026-09-01	Fed Language Tracker
2026-09-01	Sector Attention Breadth
2026-09-01	Regime Watch
2026-09-01	Editorial Attention
2026-09-01	Fed Language Tracker	We expect Warsh to maintain balance sheet mentions above 10.0 per 100,000 characters and zero mentions of inflation expectations at the next FOMC press conference.
2026-09-01	Sector Attention Breadth	Technology attention will fail to achieve a 50.0% advancing majority in the next weekly update as public interest stays clustered around leading mega-caps.
2026-09-01	Editorial Attention	Editorial restructuring on Apple's entry will keep its revert share below 10.00% in the following monthly snapshot.
2026-09-01	Fed Language Tracker	At the next press conference, Warsh will continue to register zero mentions of 'inflation expectations' as he anchors policy communication around balance-sheet dynamics.
2026-09-01	Sector Attention Breadth	Technology sector attention advancing share will remain below 50.0% in the next session as crowd attention remains anchored to headline mega-caps.
2026-09-01	Regime Watch	Both AMZN and GOOG will maintain state 3 web attention through the next two weekly reporting cycles.

17 superseded row(s) hidden: a re-run of the same issue by the same model replaces its earlier view; only the last view logged before the data arrived is live.

Scorer s1 · built 2026-09-02T22:33:26

Published by AssetFlow.ai LLC. Descriptive research on attention and public-record data; not investment advice and not an offer or solicitation. No return claim attaches to anything above. Issue date 2026-09-02.